Impact of Election Promises and Welfare Policies on Voting Patterns in Indian Politics
-Adduri Muktheshwar,(Vice-President, CPPS.)
India is a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary form of government. The elections to the parliament and state legislatures are conducted by the independent constitutional body known as the Election Commission of India, as per Article 324. The regular free and fair elections in India are considered a festival of democracy. The number of voters enrolled in the first General elections in 1951 was nearly 17.32 crore, but only 45.67% of voter turnout was registered. In the subsequently held 1957 General Elections, out of the registered voters of 19.37 crore, 47.47% casted their vote. Over the years, there have been continuous efforts from the Election Commission of India, political parties, NGOs, social activists, and other pressure groups to increase voter registration. The recently held 2014 and 2019 General Elections show the maturity of the Indian electoral system and the expectations of the youth and educated people for structural changes in Indian politics.
In the 2014 General elections, despite Narendra Modi, the Prime Ministerial candidate, coming with the model of Inclusive India, only 66.4% of the registered voters (83.30 crore) turned out to vote. For the first time in the history of Indian politics, the non-Congress party, BJP, received the majority to form the government. The idea of inclusive Bharath emphasized providing high-class infrastructure with digitization and Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) to eligible citizens through various welfare schemes and policies. Most election surveys and scholars predicted that the 2014 elections were a person-centric and agenda-based battle, rather than relying on traditional Indian politics dependent on ideology, election manifestos, and promises of development. The Modi charisma, along with an aggressive social media election campaign, helped the BJP gain support from youth and working-class voters, winning 282 MP (Member of Parliament) seats with a 31.3% vote share. On the other hand, the Congress party, for the first time in the Indian Election process, remained with less than 100 MP seats and won 44 seats, emerging as the major opposition party.
In the subsequent 2019 General Elections, the BJP came with the extended idea of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas. The ruling BJP government was able to impress the majority sections of women and marginalized groups through various welfare schemes like PM Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, and many other schemes. The historical move of abolishing Instant Triple Talaq Act also helped to gain support from Muslim women voters in most parts of the country. Out of the 91.20 crore registered voters in the 2019 Parliament Elections, only 67.40% voters cast their vote. The BJP emerged as a formidable political force in Indian politics, winning 303 MP seats with a 37.30% vote share, while the Congress party struggled to get 52 MP seats with less than 20% vote share. As predicted by most exit polls and election survey agencies, the 2019 Elections were completely based on the election promises of the BJP and its alliance parties, focusing on long-term sustainability and inclusive development for India. These parties were able to convince like-minded and targeted voters to reach the polling booths and gain majority votes.
Tracing the examples of South Indian politics and the recent elections promises in the 2023 Karnataka State Assembly Elections and 2024 Telangana State Assembly Elections, one can witness the Congress party's innovative campaign of Election Manifesto in the name of Guarantees, which influenced the elections. Despite BJP's ruling party at the Central and state level in Karnataka, the Congress party's 5 Guarantees gave them an absolute majority with 135 MLA seats, forming the government. In the 2024 Telangana State Assembly Elections, the Congress party replicated the Karnataka model with 6 Guarantees in the election campaign, successfully defeating the strong regional political party TRS, which had been ruling for the past two terms, and won the elections with 64 seats.
In the current Indian electoral system, the majority of political parties focus on futuristic election promises in the form of manifestos, agendas, and guarantees to reach out to voters through various means, succeeding in the festival of democracy. The era of Indian politics has reached beyond the traditional caste, community, and other social and economic dimensions by providing year-long election promises and assurances of welfare schemes to voters.
